The deadline is closing in for the SEC to either approve or deny the spot Bitcoin ETF. Bitcoin has performed impressively in the last 50 days. With speculation that ETF approval is set to occur on January 10, the price has witnessed an impressive soar. Although the chances of spot Bitcoin ETF approval are high, there could be a pull rug of the decade by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding the approval. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas stated that the chances of rejection of ETF are 10%, citing that the regulatory body may have a lot of paperwork regarding ETFs. Although the speculation of ETF approval is at 90%, the 10% chance includes both denial and approval scenarios.
The crypto market has embraced the idea of ETF approval by the United States Security and Exchange Commission on January 10 or even past the initial date. On the other hand, we should consider the bitter truth of the SEC rejecting the approval of the spot-Bitcoin ETF and what will happen to the price of the asset. It is not a surprise that the SEC might reject the ETF approval; the chances are likely to be there. Eric Bulchanus, an ETF analyst, said that with the amount of effort and time put in by Bitcoin ETF issuers and the SEC, it is unlikely that ETF would be rejected.
Looking back at 2017, Cameroon and Tyler Winklevoss first proposed the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust. This was an exchange-traded fund that was created to open up Bitcoin to investors and institutional investors. Despite the thinking proposal, the SEC rejected the proposal on March 17, 2017. At the time, Bitcoin was at $1,400 and had dropped significantly by 30% to $900. The analyst believes that if the ETF is not approved, the price of Bitcoin will face a bearish trend, and the target is estimated to be below the $30,000 level.
Analyst Nate Geraci on X (Twitter) said, “If the SEC rejects the approval of the spot-Bitcoin ETF, the crypto market will witness the biggest rug pull in history.” If the SEC does not approve the spot Bitcoin ETF, it will be a knockdown to the crypto market. The ETF is viewed as a milestone of acceptance by traditional institutions and is set to increase traffic in the market. Rejecting ETF will bring substantial drag to the crypto market, which will affect the rest of crypto assets like Ethereum, Dogecoin, and MemeCoins.
On Tuesday, Bitcoin was struggling to hit the $46,000 mark before the selling pressure lowered the price below the $45,000 mark. However, the bulls this morning tried fighting the market and soared the price of the asset above the $45k mark, but the asset is currently trading at $44,088 at the time of writing.