What will Bitcoin do next? Will it break down to $32,000? Or will it continue its upward trend to possibly $48,000-$50,000? We have various analysts weighing in and let’s discuss what they have to say.
We will also talk about both the bullish and the bearish scenarios and as well as look at different metrics and factors.
Bitcoin (BTC) Uptrend
Adrian Zduńczyk (@crypto_birb) shared the following chart showing that we have to be careful where we are at right now and that Bitcoin’s breakout target in the immediate short term is about $41,000-$42,000.
Some of the things he highlighted for example are sentiment. He said the sentiment, fear and greed is at 73, and behavioral biases support bulls in the uptrend.
He also mentioned seasonality — the current November is worse than average so far; he says the average November performance is over 40% and there’s only 5 days left to catch up.
So he is anticipating some sort of breakout here, but he is not really looking at the $48,000-$50,000 in the immediate term. So it could be Bitcoin moves to $41,000, then consolidates again, then we have that upward movement.
Another chart from Stockmoney Lizards shows two possible scenarios in the immediate, that Bitcoin and the entire crypto for the most part could go upwards or downwards at this point.
Of course we cannot rule out the bearish scenario as we do not have a crystal ball — we do not know what tomorrow holds, but what we are looking at is what has the higher probability of playing out.
Read: Good News For Bitcoin As Argentina Elects Pro-Crypto President
USDT Market Cap
Tether’s USDT supply continues to grow — it is near $89 billion.
If you look back at the history of the performance in 2020 and into 2021, it was on the rise as the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies rose. Then at the point of May 2022, it started crashing down as we were officially in the bear market. So now it is on the rise again and we are seeing the story play out once more.
Read: Ordinals Stage A Comeback Driving Up Bitcoin Transaction Fees
Stablecoin Supply
The total stablecoin supply is on the rise as well. Cryptocurrency on-chain analyst Will Clemente shared the following chart from Glassnode saying, “Update two weeks later: Stablecoin supplies are up another $2.2 billion since – Now up 2.8% over the last 90 days. On-chain liquidity continues to improve.”
This means not only Tether, but USDC and other stablecoins out there are growing in supply. But of course, USDT is the leader.
US Dollar Index (DXY)
The DXY, the dollar currency index, continues to show weakness as it shows downward momentum.
For context, when the DXY is going down, assets are going up. When the DXY is going up, assets are going down.
Read: Futures And Spot Bitcoin ETFs Set On A Collision Course
NASDAQ And S&P 500
The Nasdaq, as well as the S&P 500 are all looking bullish right now. The big question that everybody’s looking at is will the stock market break new all time highs or is this just a retracement.
Bitcoin and crypto are highly correlated to the stock market — it could be that it goes up just a little bit more on the stock market and that liquidity flows to crypto. Bitcoin moves and pumps to around $50,000, then that liquidity flows to the altcoins.
Bitcoin Hashrate
The other aspect is the Bitcoin hash rate is at a new all time high. The miners are mining like crazy as the Bitcoin halving is next year and they are trying to get as much Bitcoins as possible because the supply is going to be cut at that halving point.
Final Thoughts
Things are looking very bullish for Bitcoin and many have been saying that the Bitcoin halving is the official start to the bull market — some are even saying that we are in a bull market already. One could argue this is the transition phase from bear to bull.
And remember, there is a bearish scenario — Bitcoin could dump 10%-20% tomorrow, but you have to be financially educated to understand the volatility is part of this market. You use those volatility moves to the downside to dollar cost average to buy the dip and HODL, and then you can swing trade it and take some profits or hold for the macro move right to the new all time highs — whether that be late 2024 or 2025, either way you are making money.