- Arthur Hayes warns of an impending “slump” in Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrency prices around the halving.
- Bitmex co-founder and former CEO said that date until May will be a no-trade zone for him.
Bleak Bitcoin and Crypto Predictions
Former Bitmex CEO and current Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes has a bleak outlook on the Bitcoin halving day. According to the American entrepreneur who is now based in Japan, the upcoming event is certainly viewed by the consensus as a bullish affair for the general crypto market as the prices will likely pump in the medium term, but the same couldn’t be said at the time of the halving. He opined prices right before and after the crucial event could turn to the negative side.
The former Bitmex boss claimed that although a positive narrative for the halving is “well entrenched,” the market tends to behave the opposite of what most participants have anticipated. He also anchored his forecast on the tighter dollar liquidity against the backdrop of Bitcoin’s shift to another cycle.
“I believe bitcoin and crypto prices in general will slump around the halving,” Hayes warned. “Given that the halving occurs at a time when dollar liquidity is tighter than usual, it will add propellant to a raging fire sale of crypto assets.”
Given the uncertainty of dealing with risky assets this mid-April, Hayes explained he will abstain from trading from April 15 to May 1.
“This is when tax payments remove liquidity from the system, QT [Quantitative Tightening] rumbles on at the current elevated pace, and [Treasury Secretary Janet] Yellen has yet to start running down the TGA [Government’s Treasury General Account].”
The Silver Lining
On the brighter side of things, Hayes ensured it would be “back to regular programming” by May as the US continues to grapple with its shaky economy that’s characterized by rising inflation. Add to that the nation’s growing debt because of its uncontrolled government spending, especially now that it’s nearing the Presidential Election.
Meanwhile, Hayes noted the macro shows a favorable time to short the market for those bold enough to do so. But then again, he would not be participating in that and has instead closed his shitcoin and memecoin trading positions to mitigate his risks.
The Bitcoin Halving
As of this writing at 5:00 AM UTC on Wednesday, Bitcoin appears to be showing a bounce back to the $64,200 line. Whether it could sustain its foothold in this territory as the countdown for the halving nears zero remains to be seen.
There are roughly 400 blocks left until the block height of Bitcoin reaches 840,000, which will trigger the halving. At this rate, the pivotal event in the BTC ecosystem will most probably occur around the evening of April 19 at UTC standard.