The anticipation for the approval of spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange traded funds (ETFs) in the US is all the talk in the crypto scene right now. One of the questions commonly raised concerning this pivotal event is how high would Bitcoin price fly once it finally happens.
Inflows and Price Trends
Citing a study by Galaxy, the Crypto Valley Journal posits that Bitcoin prices may depend on the resulting inflows. It used as a basis the behavioral data of investors from early 2018 to 2022 during the price fluctuations of BTC to establish a link between the two.
Based on its estimates, there are currently $14.4 trillion worth of addressable assets in the US. With the conservative assumption that only 10% of them would invest in a spot Bitcoin ETF with an average allocation of 1%, there would be $14.4 billion in inflows in the first year.
Integrating the momentum-driven model would translate to $141,000 per BTC. The caveat, however, is it will be hard to predict the resulting demand of the spot Bitcoin ETFs upon launch and after the hype surrounding them subsides.
Tim Draper Doubles Down on $250K Forecast
Tim Draper, a venture capitalist (VC) who is better known in the crypto community for his bold Bitcoin predictions and purchases, is keeping his $250,000 forecast per BTC. Initially, he said Bitcoin would tap those numbers this year, but it didn’t.
When his target missed the deadline, he blamed the hesitance of traditional financial institutions in adopting the digital asset. Later on, he adjusted his ultimatum by two years to put his $250K price estimation for Bitcoin in 2025.
In his latest interview with Coin Bureau, Draper doubled down on his projection but advanced the deadline to 2024. The VC noted the resiliency and flexibility of the Bitcoin blockchain in adopting layer 2 solutions, smart contracts, and NFTs in the form of Ordinals for his analysis.
Although not expressly addressed in the interview, the nod of US regulator in Bitcoin in the form of spot ETFs based on the crypto will certainly trigger mass adoption of the coin by both retail and institutional investors—the latter whom he blamed for his missed target will be a vital factor in fulfilling his vision.
Bitcoin Now
As of this writing at 8:00 AM UTC, Bitcoin appears to be in a consolidation phase. With that, it hadn’t moved much on the 24-hour chart as it continued to tread the $42,400 line and only gone down by 0.70%. BTC only went from a $41,676 low and a $42.797 high within the timeframe.
Despite the lack of notable price actions, trading volume remained at 12.19% as $27.47 billion worth of BTC moved between wallets and crypto exchanges. Right now, the market cap of Bitcoin sits at $830.68 billion and its valuation is still 38% away from its all-time high of $68,789 on November 10, 2021.