- A new sliver of hope comes to Bitcoin (BTC) as 10X Research predicts it might surpass its all-time high (ATH) of around $69K before the halving.
- The forecast is based on the digital asset’s historical data and a key technical analysis indicator.
Early on, there were projections about Bitcoin rallying before the halving but it will likely fall short of its record peak at $68,789 in November 2021. The previous analysis was anchored on the fact that BTC still has a lot of catching up to do to fill in the $350 billion gap in its market cap in order to reach the $70K target from the $52K level.
Nonetheless, it appears that the cryptocurrency has already established its support this week at $51K. With that, it now sits on the top 10 tradable assets worldwide within the past 30 days. This gives a flicker of optimism that it might just be capable of achieving such heights again or even surpassing its established ATH.
Bitcoin Rally Based on Past Halving Cycles
According to 10X Research Founder Markus Thielen’s interview with Coindesk, Bitcoin is already positioning itself for a surge going at an average of 32% in 60 days. Right now, we are approximately 63 days away from the pivotal event in the BTC ecosystem wherein mining rewards will be halved from the current 6.25 BTC per block to 3.123 BTC per block.
Referencing to the performance of Bitcoin prices during the last three epochs of the halving, Thielen believes the fourth cycle will not be any different. With the digital currency’s present value at $52,000, factoring in the 32% boost will take its valuation to $69,000 on or a few days prior to the halving.
Despite being a long way from those numbers at the moment, Thielen reinforced his positive outlook with the massive buying pressure being generated by traditional finance (TradFi) players through their aggressive accumulation of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Bitcoin’s RSI Indicator
At the time of Thielen’s analysis, Bitcoin was treading the 80 mark on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator. Normally, anything more than 70 is a sign that an asset is already overbought or overvalued.
However, the 10X Research founder is looking at it from a bullish angle. He noted that this marks the first since December that the 14-day RSI has reached that point. Twelve out of 14 of those cases triggered an average gain of 54% in the next 60 days for Bitcoin.
Thielen stated that the signal came up by the time the crypto was trading at $48,294. So, if his theory plays out, BTC could pop as much as $74K before the halving.
Final Thoughts
Once more, do note that the estimates based here do not constitute financial advice coming from the author or Blockzeit team. The facts presented here are merely for information that you may want to consider in your DD. Remember as well that past performance is not always a 100% indicator of future returns.