- Markets now assign a 99% chance of a 25bps rate cut on October 29, sending Bitcoin past $120,000 and sparking renewed bullish sentiment.
- Historically strong for crypto, October kicks off hot, with BTC, altcoins, and meme tokens surging on lower rate expectations.
- With inflation cooling and job growth slowing, the Fed’s dovish turn could boost borrowing, risk appetite, and crypto flows heading into Q4.
Wall Street and crypto traders are buzzing as October, dubbed “Uptober” in market circles, kicks off with a bang. Bitcoin price surged past $120,000 late Thursday, riding high on seasonal optimism and fresh signs that the Federal Reserve is all but certain to slash interest rates later this month.
The rally comes amid a 99% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the Fed’s October 29 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Bullish: 99% Chance Of Second Rate Cut in October
For the uninitiated, “Uptober” is slang born in the crypto world, holding to October’s track record as a strong month for digital assets, with BTC price posting average gains of over 20% in the past decade. This year, the trend feels even more electric.
After a solid September where the Fed trimmed rates to the current 4.00%-4.25% range, markets are pricing in easier money ahead. That lower-rate outlook? It signals increased borrowing, which may lift stock valuations, and pour fuel on riskier bets like cryptocurrencies.
Data from the CME FedWatch tool show 98.9% chance the target rate drops to 3.75%-4.00%, versus just 1.1% it stays put.
Traders are optimistic about this potential move, seeing early cuts as a sign of parabolic moves ahead. Some, however, caution that the market is about to get rugpulled by a coin flip masquerading as certainty.
The mix of hype and caution captures the vibe, excitement tempered by the market’s love for surprises.
Why the Near-Certainty Now?
Recent economic jitters played a big role. A government shutdown scare rattled investors, cooling inflation data and weakening job numbers.
The Fed’s September cut was the first in years, signaling a pivot from fighting inflation to supporting growth. Now, with holiday spending on the horizon, policymakers seem eager to keep the economy humming without overheating.
The impact is already rippling through assets. Bitcoin’s climb above $116,000 early in the week marked a breakout, with altcoins and meme tokens like $PRICELESS and $4 tagging along for the ride.
The S&P 500 notched fresh highs, and tech stocks led the charge. Even traditional investors are eyeing the Fed’s moves, after all, cheaper credit means more cash chasing deals.
But not everyone’s popping champagne. Some analysts point to lingering risks, like sticky wages or geopolitical flares, that could force the Fed’s hand differently. Prediction markets like Polymarket peg a 25 bps October cut at 78%0%, a touch below CME’s read, hinting at a sliver of doubt.
As Uptober unfolds, one thing’s clear: Traders are leaning in, betting on that rate relief to propel prices higher. Whether it delivers moonshots or modest gains, October’s shaping up as the month to watch.
