This week the much-awaited black swan event finally happened, causing Bitcoin to crash. FTX, the market-leading crypto exchange deep in bed with the U.S government was the latest to become insolvent. The feud between CZ of Binance and Sam Bankman-Fried of Alameda Research did little to salvage the problem.
Previous Analysis
Last week’s analysis predicted further ranging between $20k and $21k. But we couldn’t have possibly foreseen what transpired this week. Normally, all things are held constant, technical analysis is pretty reliable. However random shifts in market fundamentals can alter technical analysis by a lot.
Since the beginning of the month, November promised positive gains for traders and investors alike. And we were off to a good start, expecting some more liquidity hunting for another two or more weeks before the market finally went up.
What Happened?
FTX happened.
Bitcoin continued rising steadily and finally breached the buy-side liquidity pool, taking out the buy stops. At this point, everyone in the space was crying ‘Bull Season!”. However, this was not meant to be.
For some time now, despite the market showing signs of recovery, everyone had a hunch that the bear season was not over yet. This is because taking an average of the length of the previous bear seasons, this one was supposed to last at least 15-18 months. That would put its end somewhere between mid to late 2023.
In addition to that, many traders, after comprehensive analysis had concluded that Bitcoin’s bottom would be around $10k to $13k.
I’m just here to tell you to brace for more blood. Max pain.$BTC #Bitcoin $UBT #Blockzeit $PRVD $ETH $LINK $BNB
— L.P🌿(💙,🧡) (@LPantifriz) July 13, 2022
Read my previous analysis (last week) here: https://t.co/mHjTWyl0Ea
Targets: 13K –> 6K
Next update tomorrow.
cc: @BlockzeitE (Give them a follow) pic.twitter.com/TJmt3X5cGC
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
Going back to the Bitcoin price analysis of July 7, 2022, we predicted a Bitcoin fall of 34% that would set it at $13k. This 34% number was arrived at by taking an average of the previous two crushes.
Doing some fresh calculations we come up with some more insight into the matter. The first thing to notice is that the consolidations become larger and larger as we crash further downwards. The longer the range the harder the crash.
Following this analysis, we come up with two possible outcomes for November, and the rest of the months leading up to the end of the bear market.
- Bitcoin crashes another 61% from here and forms a bottom at around $6700.
- Taking the average of two previous crashes, BTC falls by 32% and forms a bottom at around $12,000.
Either way, Bitcoin falls. Stay safe.
Vincent Munene is a freelance writer and a great blockchain enthusiast. Blockchain has changed his life in terms of financial freedom and in return, he likes to educate people and keep them up to date on everything blockchain. He is a Biochemist by profession and also loves to play the piano.
