- Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Cap has dropped below $600B, signaling continued loss realization and sell pressure.
- Global liquidity has surged since early 2025, lifting gold, silver, and equities sharply, while Bitcoin remains range-bound.
- With U.S. Core PPI expected to rise 0.2%, markets brace for a continued Fed pause, a backdrop that has so far limited upside for crypto.
Bitcoin price traded near $89,300 early Friday, down slightly amid broader risk-off sentiment. Despite accelerating global liquidity and favorable historical fractals, the cryptocurrency has failed to capture the upside seen in traditional assets, while short-term holders continue to realize losses.
Short-Term Holders Realize Losses
The Bitcoin Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Cap has fallen below $600 billion, down approximately $36 billion since late December.
The metric, which reflects the average cost basis of coins held less than 155 days, shows sustained selling pressure from newer investors.
The chart indicates the realized cap has trended lower since mid-2025 peaks, contrasting with Bitcoin’s price holding above $80,000 but failing to break new highs.
Meanwhile, analysts continue to highlight Bitcoin’s repeating four-year cycle structure. The Alphractal chart overlays past cycles, showing the current phase mirroring previous post-halving periods.
Accumulation and markup phases have followed bear markets with striking consistency. The model projects the ongoing cycle could extend into 2026, with potential resolution in Q3. Observers note that Bitcoin remains one of the few assets that maintain such predictable timing.
PPI Data Comes Out Today
The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data for December will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET today, and analysts expect +0.2% increase in the Core PPI.
If readings come in as expected, they will reinforce the Federal Reserve’s pause without a clear dovish pivot, contributing to continued risk asset weakness.
The Global Liquidity Index (yellow line) has surged since early 2025, reflecting expanding central bank balance sheets and easier financial conditions. Over the same period:
- Gold (XAUUSD): +106.44%
- Silver: +295.34%
- Nasdaq 100: +35.19%
- S&P 500: +19.40%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD), however, shows -7.16% (-$1,211) over the displayed timeframe, remaining range-bound near the lower end of its 2025 channel.
The chart from TradingView illustrates a clear divergence: liquidity-driven rallies have lifted equities, precious metals, and other risk assets, but crypto has seen minimal follow-through.
While 2024 delivered strong outperformance for Bitcoin, 2025–2026 has seen gains flow elsewhere despite the favorable liquidity backdrop.
Market participants note that the Fed’s steady stance and absence of aggressive rate cuts continue to weigh on risk appetite. Until clearer signals of dovish policy emerge or liquidity fully transmits into crypto, Bitcoin may remain under pressure in the near term.
