In 2025, the global financial system is under massive pressure. The US is recording historic peacetime deficits, while the Federal Reserve finds itself in a delicate situation: on the one hand, persistently high inflation is threatening purchasing power, while on the other, a drastic interest rate hike would make the government’s debt unsustainable. At the same time, confidence in US government bonds and the stability of the dollar is declining, especially abroad.
Parallel to this, trade and energy flows are changing. More and more countries, especially in the Middle East, China, and India, are beginning to conduct oil and commodity transactions outside the US dollar. This process is weakening the foundation of the so-called petrodollar system, which has established the dollar as the global reserve currency since the 1970s.
Against this backdrop, a provocative hypothesis is gaining traction: the US could attempt to stabilize its financial system through a quiet revaluation of gold – before Bitcoin, as an uncontrollable digital asset, becomes a serious alternative.
The Breakdown of the Petrodollar System
For decades, the strength of the dollar was based on the fact that oil was traded almost exclusively in dollars worldwide. Every barrel of oil paid for in dollars generated demand for US government bonds, thereby ensuring global acceptance of the American currency.
But this mechanism is increasingly eroding. India and China – together accounting for around one-third of the world’s population – now buy Russian oil in Chinese yuan. This is creating a multipolar system in which the dollar still dominates, but is no longer without alternative.
If the petrodollar system continues to weaken, the question of a new neutral standard of value arises. Gold is a good candidate here – it is scarce, internationally recognized, and already anchored in large quantities on central bank balance sheets.
The Logic behind a Gold Revaluation
The theory is that the US could partially “re-secure” its financial obligations by adjusting the value of its gold reserves to the current market price. The United States currently holds around 8,100 tons of gold, but officially still values it at the historic price of $42 per ounce – a relic from before the end of the gold standard in 1971.
If this gold were valued at a realistic market value, a significant portion of the monetary base could be covered. According to analysts’ calculations, a revaluation to around $16,000 per ounce would cover around three-quarters of the base money supply. This would strengthen confidence in the dollar and the government’s balance sheet in the long term – without an official conference or currency reform, but through a simple accounting adjustment.
This measure would act as a covert debt restructuring: the real value of the debt would fall, while the nominal credibility of the government would be maintained.
Stablecoins as a new Link in the Dollar System
While a gold revaluation strengthens the base in the background, stablecoins could play a decisive role in the foreground. The US has an obvious interest in maintaining the global presence of the dollar, including in digital form.
Stablecoins – digitally tradable tokens, mostly backed by the dollar – make this possible. They circulate worldwide, serve as a means of payment in decentralized markets, and tie users to the US dollar, even without direct contact with American banks.
In fact, stablecoins already finance part of the US national debt: they are backed by short-term government bonds, thus creating a kind of “digital petrodollar.” Instead of oil producers investing their profits in US bonds, crypto investors now hold digital dollars – a modern, technological replacement for the old system.
Related article: Are stablecoins the foundation of the new financial world?
Gold and Bitcoin – Two Poles of a new Monetary Order
If gold repairs the government balance sheet, then Bitcoin could symbolize the long-term stability of the system. Gold can be revalued through political decisions; Bitcoin, on the other hand, eludes any central control. It has no issuers, no borders, and no possibility of arbitrary revaluation.
In this context, gold is often seen as a “government lifeboat,” while Bitcoin is considered its “human” counterpart – decentralized and immutable. Both serve similar functions: they serve as stores of value in times of monetary uncertainty. But while gold remains part of the system, Bitcoin stands outside it.
In a transitional phase, gold could therefore be deliberately strengthened in order to build confidence in existing institutions. Only then – once stability has been achieved – would the way be clear for broader acceptance of digital, non-governmental assets such as Bitcoin.
Historical Comparative Values and Possible Price Levels
The current valuation of US gold reserves covers only about 11 percent of US debt held abroad. In the late 1980s, this figure was still 20 percent, and the historical average was even 40 percent.
If gold were to return to this long-term average, its price would have to quadruple to around US$15,000 to US$16,000 per ounce. Such a development would not only mean a strong gold bull market, but also a creeping devaluation of debt through inflation and revaluation.
This dynamic might appear to the public as a “market movement,” but in reality it would be a strategic step toward financial stabilization in the US.
The possible Connection between the Gold Rally and Bitcoin Weakness
Interestingly, the recent gold rally coincides with a period of unusually weak Bitcoin prices. Some observers suspect that this development is no coincidence. If gold serves as a government-controllable means of stabilizing the system, a strong Bitcoin could be perceived as “uncontrolled competition.”
Bitcoin vs. gold correlation (Image: Newhedge.io)
In this scenario, a deliberate or indirect dampening of Bitcoin’s momentum—through market liquidations, regulatory pressure, or negative media reports, for example—would buy time to gradually implement the gold revaluation without triggering capital flight into decentralized assets.
Whether this is actually orchestrated or simply a natural market rotation remains open. In fact, however, gold currently seems to be gaining the confidence of the capital markets, while Bitcoin is waiting in the wings as the asset for the “next phase.”
The Long-term Goal: A Multipolar, Digitally supported Financial Order
The gold revaluation theory points to a profound structural problem: The existing system cannot resolve its debt burden through either growth or interest rates. The logical consequence is partial devaluation – whether through inflation, currency reform, or silent revaluation.
In this context, gold could form the bridge to restore the credibility of national currencies, while digital assets such as stablecoins and Bitcoin represent the next stage in the evolution of money.
The transition from a gold-backed to a bitcoin-based world order would not be an abrupt break, but a multi-stage process. Gold could serve as a “state ark” — a tool to stabilize the system — while bitcoin forms the decentralized, global, and uncensorable basis for the monetary system of the future.
Related article: The end of the old financial system? Why Bitcoin is now unstoppable
A Revaluation Theory?
The gold revaluation theory does not describe a short-term market event, but a possible strategic scenario for the restructuring of the international financial system. It combines macroeconomic constraints, geopolitical realities, and technological developments into a coherent picture:
First, the restoration of trust through physical gold, then the gradual opening up to digital, cross-border stores of value. Whether this process is consciously controlled or forced by the market itself is secondary. What is crucial is that gold and Bitcoin represent two sides of the same historical development – the return to scarce, credible, and not arbitrarily reproducible forms of money.
Autor
Ed Prinz is CEO of neob.ai, founder of moonlytics.ai, moonboard.ai, Chairman of DLT Austria, founder of Web3 Hub Vienna, cryptohub.wien, aihub.wien, digitalassetsforum.wien and co-founder of DLT Germany and DLT Switzerland, founder of viennablockchainweek.org, founder of vienna.finance. With years of experience in research and analysis of tokens, protocols, and markets, as well as in portfolio management, he brings in-depth knowledge in the areas of blockchain technology and EVM. Since 2017, he has been advising blockchain startups and companies and is actively involved in the development of innovative Web3 solutions. In this guest article, he analyzes current developments in the crypto sector.
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