- Some analysts believe that Bitcoin may be transitioning from a “Trump Trade” to a “Trump Dump” as a Kamala Harris win becomes more apparent in the 2024 US presidential election.
Bitcoin: From ‘Trump Trade’ to ‘Trump Dump’
The upcoming US election has taken center stage in the market, particularly the cryptocurrency sector. In the past few weeks leading up to the pivotal event, traders have seemingly executed their “Trump Trades” in anticipation of former US President Donald Trump’s win, which they believe will usher in a more favorable environment for digital assets in the next regime.
However, Vice President Kamala Harris has been seemingly maintaining her positive momentum toward becoming the first woman president of the US. Surveys currently show that the Democratic Party bet is keeping a significant advantage over her Republican rival. At the same time, the controversial decentralized prediction market Polymarket displayed the VP narrowing her gap with the former president.
With this in mind, analysts are throwing shade at the “Trump Trade” turning into a “Trump Dump.”
Is Bitcoin Losing Its Momentum?
After recently stopping short of surpassing its all-time high (ATH) of $73,750.07, Bitcoin (BTC) dipped around $67K over the weekend. As of 9:30 AM UTC on Monday, it continued its consolidation in the $68K zone.
In the past 24 hours, the premier crypto asset registered a 42% increase in trading volume as $34.25 billion worth of BTC moved across wallet addresses. To date, it has maintained a market cap of $1.36 trillion, placing it among the top 10 largest assets in the world by overall valuation.
In the past couple of hours, CoinGlass recorded roughly $350 million in crypto liquidations. This was by far the largest liquidation in the sector in nearly three weeks. Along the way, the event has taken over $259 million longs and $90 million shorts as casualties, which supports the narrative that the current election trend might be negatively affecting market sentiment.
Amid this FUD, TradingView still maintained its “Buy” signals for Bitcoin in the overall one-day, one-week, and one-month trends. Meanwhile, the weekly and monthly charts indicated strong buy signals across the 10 to 200 range of their respective exponential and simple moving averages, which still show a promising long-term overview of BTC.
On the other hand, the multifactorial Crypto Fear & Greed Index of Alternative painted a significant drop in Bitcoin and altcoin market sentiment from yesterday’s 74 to today’s 70. Nonetheless, it still illustrated a “Greedy” behavior among traders and investors, which reinforces the idea that there’s more hope left for BTC’s climb regardless of what the US election has in store for the market.
Rare Signal Could Sustain BTC’s Rally
Citing an analysis from TechDev, BlockZeit recently confirmed the occurrence of a rare pattern playing out in the Bitcoin price charts. This rare signal happened during the 2013 and 2017 BTC bull markets.
Referencing from the Fisher Transform Indicator, the funding rate for Bitcoin between April and November suggests that the asset could be poised to rally beyond its prevailing ATH. But then again, BTC’s recent break below $69K could invalidate this thesis.
Disclaimer
While the author endeavors to provide factual information and educated forecasts lifted from reliable sources, the discussion here is only based on a limited scope. It does not entail a comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Hence, events immediately occurring post-publication could invalidate the factors presented herein without warning.
