- Bitcoin “launchpad” indicator (LTH-SOPR at 1.5) flashes for the third time, a level that previously triggered two massive rallies from $40K to $72K and $60K to $101K.
- Rate-cut odds jump to 85%, raising expectations that a dovish Fed at the December FOMC meeting could ignite Bitcoin’s next major rally.
- Crypto ETFs show strong institutional demand, with Ethereum leading at $60.8M in inflows and Bitcoin ETFs adding $21M.
With just 13 days until the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes on December 9-10, markets are buzzing over mounting odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Fresh data from CME FedWatch shows an 84.9% probability of easing the target rate from its current 3.75%-4% range to 3.5%-3.75%.
That’s a sharp jump from earlier forecasts, signaling traders’ growing conviction that cooling inflation and softening job data could prompt the Fed to slash borrowing costs by 25 basis points.
The implications ripple far beyond Wall Street, igniting speculation in the crypto arena. Lower rates historically flood risk assets like digital currencies with fresh capital, and analysts warn this could be the spark for Bitcoin’s next explosive leg up.
Bitcoin’s Historical Launchpad Activated—Third Time’s the Charm?
Crypto traders are zeroing in on a key technical signal — the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR). This indicator has dipped back to the 1.5 support level for the third time this cycle.
Dubbed the “launchpad” by on-chain analysts, this metric (which tracks realized profits among long-term holders) has preceded massive rallies twice before.
In February 2024, the bounce from 1.5 propelled BTC from $40,000 to a then-record $72,000. October 2024 saw a similar script: a rebound from $60,000 to an all-time high near $101,000. Now, with Bitcoin trading at around $91,300 as of early Thursday, up 4.5% in the last 24 hours, the stage appears set once more.
If history even rhymes a little, the next leg up is loading. Bitcoin’s price has consolidated in a tight $89,000-$90,000 range post its November peak, but bullish forecasts peg a potential breakout to $94,000 by month-end, with some models eyeing $112,000 if macro tailwinds align.
The Fed’s dovish pivot could be the catalyst, as cheaper money amplifies Bitcoin’s appeal as a “digital gold” hedge against fiat erosion.
Ethereum Spot ETFs Lead the Charge with $61M Inflows
Fueling the optimism, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) notched $21.12 million in net inflows on November 26, despite a minor $8.1 million outflow from Fidelity’s FBTC, the lone laggard.
Ethereum ETFs stole the show, raking in $60.82 million for the fourth straight day, pushing total assets under management past $18.8 billion. Ethereum’s price held steady at approximately $3,031, buoyed by the influx amid broader market jitters.
XRP ETFs weren’t far behind, logging $21.81 million in gains, while Solana’s dipped $8.1 million into the red. These flows underscore institutional hunger for crypto exposure, even as Bitcoin’s dominance wanes slightly. “Four days of ETH inflows signal sustained demand,” noted one fund manager. “With the Fed meeting looming, we’re positioning for a risk-on surge.”
Yet, caution lingers. Bitcoin’s Fear & Greed Index sits at 22, extreme fear territory, reflecting volatility risks. A no-cut surprise from the FOMC could trigger a pullback to $80,000 support. Still, with LTH-SOPR flashing green and ETF dollars pouring in, the crypto faithful are betting big on history repeating.
Disclaimer: The facts and analysis presented here are only for informational purposes. Readers should not interpret the content of this article as financial advice or product recommendations.
