- Bitcoin helped add $150 billion to the crypto market cap in just over a week as traders piled into profits.
- Michael Burry warned that today’s stock market resembles the final stage of the Dot-Com Bubble as Treasury yields hit 5%.
- Tom Lee says a monthly Bitcoin close above $76K would officially confirm the end of the bear market.
While Wall Street debates the next move, Bitcoin traders have racked up their highest unrealized profits since June 2025, leading the crypto to add over $150 billion to its total market cap in just over a week.
The bond market flashed a warning within the same period, as Michael Burry, the guy who called the housing crash in The Big Short, said the stock market right now feels like the final months of the Dot-Com Bubble. Here’s this week’s market breakdown.
Bitcoin Traders Sit on Highest Unrealized Profits Since June 2025
On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows unrealized profit margins for short-term holders have climbed back to levels last seen in June 2025. The chart, which tracks price against (green) profit bars and (red) loss bars, shows that right now, the Bitcoin traders are profiting, pushing the profit/loss margin line above zero and toward its 2025 peak.
Historically, that setup has triggered sellers who lock in gains and create local tops. This time, the rally was sharp, but distribution pressure has started to build. Will BTC price fold?
Michael Burry Warns Stocks Feel Like Dot-Com Bubble Peak
Michael Burry has delivered the reality check on stocks, posting that the current market setup reminds him of the late stages of the Dot-Com Bubble. Stocks sit near records while risks pile up.
His warning has traders watching for any sign of rotation out of risk assets. At the same time, the bond market is sending its own loud signal in support of Burry’s assessment.
The 30-year Treasury yield has hit 5% while the 10-year now sits above 4.40% and has flipped the equity risk premium (ERP) negative for the second deepest reading in 23 years. The Bloomberg’s equity risk discount chart shows it clearly. The spread between the S&P 500 earnings yield and 10-year Treasury yield dropped below the zero line and keeps sliding.
A negative ERP typically indicates overvalued equities and often precedes a period of lower returns or higher volatility for the stock market, signaling a shift in the risk-reward tradeoff. It often leads investors to reassess, potentially triggering a shift from equities into fixed-income or cash.
Bonds are no longer giving U.S. stocks any support, and high equity valuations and high bond yields make it harder for stocks to justify their risk.
While this data does not mean the market will crash immediately, it does amplify what Michael Burry just said concerning the potential direction of the stock market, and it is worth paying attention to.
Tom Lee Says $76K Bitcoin Close Ends Bear Market
Meanwhile, Tom Lee has drawn a clear line for Bitcoin. Speaking live from Consensus, the Fundstrat head said, “If Bitcoin closes up above $76,000 this month, the bear market is definitely over.”
The comment now has traders focused on the monthly candle as Bitcoin has traded in the mid-to-high $70,000s recently. A clean close above that level would flip the technical narrative and confirm the bear market has ended.
Current market data is giving traders mixed signals. Some have already taken partial profits, while others are still holding, betting that institutional buying and any Strategic Bitcoin Reserve news will outweigh the sellers.
The $150 billion market-cap surge in a week proves the buying pressure has been real so far. Bitcoin traders are sitting in profits, yields have spiked, Burry has sounded the alarm, and Tom Lee has set the bar at $76,000.
The charts show both the opportunity and the risk. Whether the bear market ends this month depends on one monthly close and how fast those unrealized profits turn into realized ones. Right now, the market has spoken with action. The next move will decide if this rally has legs or if history repeats.
