- Bitget Research Chief Analyst Ryan Lee recently shared his insights about the Bitcoin rally during the latter half of August.
- He also outlined the factors that could either pull BTC back to $55K or push it to $150K.
Significant recoveries in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), letting them regain the prices they lost since May, have helped investors gradually lighten the bags they have been holding for months, especially those who bought at the height of last year’s crypto bull run, when BTC logged an all-time high of nearly $126,000.
With Bitcoin stuck around $78,000 to $79,000 and Ethereum treading the $2,400 to $2,500 range, the crypto community is bracing itself for what the road to the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2026 has in store. Bitget Research Chief Analyst Ryan Lee recently shared valuable insights on trends driving the digital assets space.
Wrapping Up the Events in August
Lee said a clearer picture of where the market could be heading next emerged in August. On the macro front, US debt surpassed the $40 trillion mark, and the US Treasury doubled its long-term bond buybacks.
Additionally, Bitcoin rallied 23% to 27% in a single week with gold. Strong spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) inflows reinforced its move.
Lee highlighted that the events coincided with a broader discussion around fiscal sustainability, currency debasement and demand for hard assets. While he admitted these factors don’t necessarily establish the primary cause of the recent crypto rally, their significance is hard to ignore.
The Bitget chief analyst explained that macro factors played a crucial role in the mid-August rally. Compared to past rallies, the surge in crypto prices is now heavily influenced by ETF flows, fiscal conditions, global liquidity, and crypto-native elements.
Moreover, Lee underscored that the market’s ability to sustain its recovery may depend partly on institutional flows, liquidity conditions, and investors’ reaction to incoming macro data.
Drivers of the Next Trend
Lee advises watching out for interest rate expectations, inflation, US dollar strength in foreign exchange, Treasury liquidity, and Federal Reserve signals heading into Q4. Typically, a softer dollar and low odds for a rate hike favor the crypto market. The opposite, characterized by a hawkish outlook, a rate hike, or a stronger dollar, usually diminishes risk appetite for risk assets, such as crypto.
Within the crypto ecosystem, ETF inflows, stablecoin supply growth, and regulatory progress are key variables that could affect retail and institutional participation. Lee found stablecoins, real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, and artificial intelligence (AI) as interesting areas to focus on because of their exponential growth over the years, which has been amplified this year.
The Bitget chief analyst pointed out that these sectors determine capital rotation between their side and crypto.
Year-End Outlook
Lee admitted that the factors he enumerated have yet to show a definitive indicator of where the crypto market is heading in Q4. Nonetheless, he projected that an $85,000-$100,000 scenario in Bitcoin is likely if prices maintain their range-bound trajectory in the near term, with ETF flows remaining positive and macro conditions favorable. It could test $110,000-$150,000 on sustained upward momentum reinforced by regulatory clarity, especially if the pending Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act is approved this year.
On the other hand, Lee warned that a more hawkish Fed or liquidity shock could push prices back to $55,000-$65,000.
Disclaimer: The compiled data, analysis, and commentary featured in this article are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a product recommendation from Bitget, the author, or the Blockzeit team.
