- Bitget Chief Analyst Ryan Lee noted Bitcoin‘s resilience amid the renewed escalation in the US-Iran tensions.
- He warned that the risk premium on oil prices will continue to steer market headwinds, as inflation and Fed rates hang in the balance.
- On the other hand, momentum in AI, RWAs, and stablecoin payments will help drive market tailwinds.
Markets opened the week with renewed uncertainty as the US and Iran reignited their conflict. Oil came with a risk premium as the situation signaled another series of supply chain disruptions.
Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, once again shared his thoughts on what to expect in the near term, given these circumstances.
Investors Balancing Between Defensive Positioning and Risk
During Blockzeit’s correspondence with Lee on Tuesday, the Bitget official noted that the US Dollar Index traded around 100.7. US Treasury yields remained elevated at the start of the work week.
The two-year trend displayed 4.15% while the 10-year chart was around 4.45%. The figures reflect cautious expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts as higher energy prices posed inflation risks.
Along the way, gold price eased moderately amid the geopolitical backdrop. It suggests that investors are balancing their portfolio between defensive positioning and broader risk exposure.
Bitcoin’s Strong Rebound
Lee saw Bitcoin’s rebound to the $65,000 range as a “resilient upside momentum,” notwithstanding the geopolitical noise. BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) reinforced its recovery with a streak of net inflows since July 14, while futures open interest (OI) remained elevated. It also came with modestly positive funding rates and contained liquidations.
The analyst believes that the combination shows demand may continue to be driven by spot allocation, which historically has been associated with lower forced-liquidation risk.
Macro Indicators to Watch Out For
Despite Bitcoin chiefly ignoring the latest US-Iran escalation, Lee warned that macro developments will continue to significantly influence the premier crypto asset’s price action. Additionally, he highlighted that investors should remain vigilant over oil’s price action. The analyst emphasized that higher oil prices will drive up inflation expectations and the Fed’s policy outlook.
Moreover, a continuation of positive spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows and balanced derivatives positioning will confirm that institutional demand remains intact to a certain degree based on available data. It also indicates relative resilience in the broader crypto market.
AI, RWAs, and Payments to Drive BTC and Crypto Tailwinds
Beyond the macro headwinds, Lee said structural tailwinds are building up. Artificial intelligence (AI), stablecoin payments, and real-world assets (RWAs) take center stage in markets.
In the realm of AI, Moonshot is planning an Initial Public Offering (IPO) in Hong Kong in the next six months. It targets more than a $30 billion valuation following the launch of its Kimi K3 coding model.
Lee claimed that AI remains a major catalyst of crypto sentiment. He pointed out that the Moonshot public listing will likely move capital back into AI-linked tokens.
In payments, Amazon Japan supplier AZ-Com Maruwa plans to use JPYC to pay 2,300 drivers, marking Japan’s first large-scale corporate stablecoin rollout, signaling a shift from speculative trading to real-economy settlement. Meanwhile, Figure Heloc (FIGR_HELOC) has quietly surged to a $20.9B market cap, offering a live proof of concept for tokenized home equity credit on-chain.
“For now, the market appears to be in a holding pattern,” said Lee. “On one side, short-term price action remains sensitive to macro headwinds like renewed US-Iran tensions, elevated oil prices, and sticky inflation.”
“On the other hand, advancements in AI, tokenization, and real-economy stablecoin payments are steadily laying the groundwork for long-term structural growth,” the Bitget official added. “The tension between these two forces, rather than a clear directional bias, is likely to define the weeks ahead.”
