- Bitcoin closed 2025 around $87,000–$88,000 with the Coinbase Premium Index staying negative, signaling continued U.S.-based selling.
- BlackRock’s IBIT added roughly 220,000 BTC in 2025, ending the year with over 770,000 BTC, while Tether boosted reserves by 8,888 BTC.
- Despite low odds of near-term Fed rate cuts, Bitcoin’s price structure mirrors gold’s breakout pattern.
The Bitcoin market wrapped up 2025 on a mixed note, with spot prices hovering around $87,000 to $88,000 as 2026 began. Despite holiday-thin trading and traditional finance markets closed, signs of selling pressure persisted, particularly from U.S. investors.
A key indicator, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index, showed the discount widening into negative territory through late December, hitting levels like -0.08% to -0.186% in the provided chart.
This metric compares Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase (a major U.S. exchange) to global platforms like Binance. A sustained negative premium signals stronger selling on Coinbase, often tied to U.S.-based traders or institutions offloading holdings amid year-end positioning or caution.
Persistent U.S. Selling Pressure
The chart from late December highlights repeated dips below zero, with peaks briefly positive but overall red shading dominating. This suggests “who is dumping” could include U.S. retail and some institutional players facing profit-taking or risk reduction.
Even with markets closed for holidays, the pressure didn’t ease, pointing to underlying caution rather than broad panic.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) ended 2025 strongly, accumulating roughly 220,000 BTC during the year to hold around 770,000–772,000 BTC.
This positions the fund for potential 1 million BTC under management in 2026 if inflows continue. The inflows chart shows daily and cumulative flows into IBIT, with total holdings climbing steadily despite some late-year volatility.
Other positive notes include Tether adding 8,888 BTC to reserves, bolstering stablecoin backing.
After seven straight days of outflows totaling $1.12 billion, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs flipped positive on December 30 with $355 million in inflows. This reversal hints at returning liquidity and potential bargain hunting as the year turned.
Fed Outlook Cools Rate Cut Hopes
Market expectations for the January 28, 2026, Fed meeting show only 16.1% probability of a rate cut (to 325-350 bps), with 83.9% odds of holding steady at the current 350-375 bps range.
This hawkish tilt reflects sticky inflation and solid economic data, reducing near-term easing bets that had earlier supported risk assets like Bitcoin.
A BTC/USDT chart overlays Bitcoin and gold on separate panes, both showing descending triangle patterns broken upward. Gold rallied sharply from lows around $1,175 to over $1,425, while Bitcoin climbed from roughly $80,000–$90,000 lows toward $140,000+ highs in the projection.
The alignment suggests Bitcoin is tracking gold’s breakout strength. If BTC closes and holds above $90,000, analysts see a quick reprice toward $100,000 or higher, driven by similar macro liquidity flows.
Overall, Bitcoin enters 2026 consolidating after a choppy close to 2025. U.S. selling lingers via the Coinbase discount, but strong ETF inflows, BlackRock’s accumulation, and gold-like momentum offer bullish counterpoints. A sustained break above key resistance could spark faster gains in the new year.
