- Bitcoin bounced to $72.7K, but on-chain metrics suggest the market is still in a “stress test” phase with no confirmed bottom.
- MVRV remains above 1.0, indicating capitulation levels typical of cycle lows have not yet been reached.
- Sticky core inflation and weak demand could keep BTC trapped in a $60K–$80K range before a true reversal forms.
Bitcoin traders watched price bounce to $72,791 today, but the chart and on-chain data just delivered a contradicting message – bottom not confirmed.
CryptoQuant data has placed Bitcoin in a “stress test” phase as long- and short-term holders have started showing early signs of capitulation. Mid-term holders (6-12 months) sit underwater near $100k cost basis and create overhead supply.
MVRV has not dropped below 1.0, the level needed for a true structural bottom. Short-term demand has stayed resilient but has not grown strong enough for a clean reversal. The floor remains fragile, and caution still matters more than aggression in this market.
On-Chain Data Confirms Structural Bottom Has Yet to Form
Top analyst on CryptoQuant, Sunny Mom, just predicted that the BTC bottom is not in. She notes that a true “structural bottom” has yet to form.
The analyst notes that the 6m-12m holders are still underwater as their Realized Price (RP) is near $100K.
Additionally, the MVRV hovered at 1.2, a value zone, sure, but nowhere near the capitulation pain below 1.0 that marks cycle lows. Long-term holders have made up just 15% of realized cap, still short of the historical 20%+ needed for a solid floor.
The analyst laid out two possible paths that BTC could take: a quick black-swan crash to force out weak hands, or the “great boring”, which entails months of $60K–$80K grinding while new money ages into long-term status. Either way, volatility between $60K and $70K remains on the menu.
Headline PCE at 2.8% but Core Stays Sticky
Today’s PCE data just came in, and it is slightly cooler than expected. Headline YoY hit 2.8% versus 2.9% expected, while Core YoY held exactly at 3.1%.
The lower headline gave bulls a quick cheer, but the sticky core inflation is likely to keep the Fed rate cuts on hold. Risk assets like Bitcoin will likely feel the pressure, as no rate-cut catalyst has arrived to fuel a breakout or confirm the current recovery rally.
Short-term demand has not yet appeared strong enough to push BTC past resistance. On-chain curves still slope upward instead of flattening, which is the historical sign of a bottom.
Volatility between $60k and $70k levels has continued, and the next leg could grind lower or drag sideways into late 2026. Liquidation maps already show over $4 billion in long exposure at risk on a 10% drop.
Investors who diamond-handed through the last cycle have seen this move before. The stress test has shaken weak hands and hunted stops, but there is one final move downward remaining. The chart, the data, and the macro all agree: more pain is possible before any moonshot.
